Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Assumptions, Theories and New Beginnings By KJ



I think that it is wonderful that Tori has reopened www.justiceforayla.blogspot.com and that comments are being made by people on all sides of the fence in the Ayla Reynolds case. Truly the efforts made by everyone, while great, can be even better by coming together and sharing all theories and thoughts.

Perhaps comments will be better received if people remember that everyone operates with some degree of assumptions. For the record, I do not assume that people are working on assumptions, because I know that people are working on assumptions.

Everyone makes assumptions every day. There are no exceptions. So how is it that I know everyone is working on assumptions? Here are a few samples. I'm sure you could come up with many of your own.

Trista can tell Jeff what she knows, feels and sees. Jeff can tell everyone via a blog post or comments on blogs what Trista has said to him. At this point, we work from assumptions. When we believe what Jeff says to us, we assume that Trista is telling the truth. We also make the assumption that Jeff has not changed what Trista said, saying something totally different. Again, we have to assume because we did not witness the event that Trista talked about firsthand, neither did we witness her telling Jeff. And if we did witness what Trista said to Jeff, we would still be making an assumption as to whether Trista was truthful or not truthful. If we don't believe what Jeff had to say, or what Trista had to say we are, again making an assumption as to whether either was honest.

Justin can tell Heidi about the night in question or what he feels happened to Ayla, Heidi can tell other people via messages and comments what Justin said. People believe what Justin has to say through Heidi. Those people are assuming that Justin is telling the truth and that Heidi is relaying what Justin said word for word and hasn't changed the information. You see how this works? These people who believe have made the assumption that Justin is truthful and that Heidi is relaying his words without changes. Those who do not believe what Justin said through Heidi have assumed he and/or Heidi are not being truthful. Assumptions again.

None of us know all the facts. We know some facts, but those are only what has been released by the authorities, because only they have the facts. The facts they have come from investigation and testing (proven methods to determine facts). The information we attain from either side of Ayla's family (Trista and/or Justin), is hearsay and thus requires a judgment on our part as to whether the information is reliable. We neither witnessed firsthand the events they are telling and neither did we hear them tell the source the information.

If we realize that whatever anyone believes or says starts out with some assumptions, it's easier to accept others opinions, as just that, their opinions. Since the beginning, there have been many wrong assumptions made by followers of this case about other followers of this case. Those assumptions and the subsequent remarks made based on those assumptions have caused more problems than anything else. Most of us, most likely have never followed a missing child case (I know I haven't) in quite the way we have been following this one. So for many people who comment, it could be their first time commenting or stating their opinions in a missing child case. Perhaps we make mistakes, perhaps we have wrong assumptions, but at least we share what we think and more often than not, accept others opinions as well.

There are very few facts to be had in this case. If we had a lot of facts, Ayla would most likely be found by now. But we don't, so we talk about the facts we have, the assumptions we make, the theories that come from those facts and assumptions. There is nothing wrong with making assumptions or coming to conclusions, as long as a person realizes that they could be wrong. It's nice that there is a blog where all sides can come together and state those opinions. I'm sure that we all still have our own strong opinions on what happened or what didn't happen, who knows and who doesn't know, who is truthful and who is not. That does not mean we are right, just that we have our own ideas.

I try to remember, that not everything I see is the whole story. It's a lot of puzzle pieces and everyone has a few of the pieces, some are out in the public, some are not. Picture it this way, there is an object in the center of the room, 20 people are standing in a circle looking at the same object. Because they are looking at it from different spots, all 20 see different things about the object. That's really what we have here. A lot of people, looking at the same case, from different perspectives and all seeing something different. I value everyone's opinion, thoughts and perspectives, because they are looking at it from a different viewpoint than I am. When a person starts to understand this concept, they start to value the thoughts of even those people with the extreme opposite view. They start to realize that everything said by anyone has some validity based on perspective. - KJ

31 comments:

  1. Not all sides are allowed tho are they Tori?

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    1. You would be more than welcome to post here if you could refrain from personal attacks on me or anyone else and stopped causing drama. If you want to participate here that choice is up to you

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    2. I can refrain from personal attacks if you will not allow them to be brought against me.

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    3. I will not allow them to be brought against you or anyone. Some comments do go through moderation that are borderline but always in response to a topic being discussed and not out and out attacks

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    4. Tori, Good point in your post, but I never had a problem discerning fact from assumption when Trista was living with me...and I certainly never faulted Angela for "changing her story", because unless your getting your information from someone in the next room, you just can't get all the information you need at once. Even when Trista was in the next room I re-wrote some articles 100 times.

      Anyway, I met Trista's detectives on Tuesday, When they asked me what I wanted to know I was speechless.. for about 10 seconds. Among the things I asked them was what did Justin say happened the night before Ayla went missing.. and after 15 months of waiting for Justin to tell Trista anything about it.. we finally heard it from Maine State Police. I'll finish up that post for Sunday, hopefully.

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    5. KJ wrote this post and posted it on ArmChair Detectives on Facebook and gave me permission to repost it here. I can't take credit for the post.

      I am certainly looking forward to the post and sure many others are too. I can only imagine how difficult it must have been for all of you to hear from MSP what they think happened. I don't envy you there.

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    6. Looking forward to it Jeff. Thank you for sharing!!!

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    7. PS: Can you/would you be comfortable in sharing what other questions you asked.

      (I'm ASSUMING :) that you can't/won't be comfortable with sharing all answers.

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    8. Jeff - I'll be very interested to hear what, if anything, you can share with us from that talk. I look forward to the post.

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    9. Jeff... I will be looking forward to your post. Thank you for sharing the information that you do know. It helps to give me a better idea of what happened. - KJ

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    10. Sorry KJ. I missed the big bold letters that said by KJ :] you've got mail

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    11. Jeff... got the mail. Will do. Thanks- KJ

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    12. I was going through different blogs and different dates and times trying to make sense of things because my brain went into shut down mode there for awhile and I have been trying to revamp and keep open minded to all. In doing this I came across a piece from Anonymous on 3/3/12 at 4:29 in the PM. It was found under a page that was called The Photos. This little message or what ever you want to call it was located toward bottom of page. I was hoping someone could fill me in on what it pertains to or if someone was going out of their way to be hurtful.

      Anonymus 4:29 PM on 3/3/12 wrote:

      The photos in the white dress.
      The photographer begins the verbal torment.
      Photographing each sadistic turn in the babies face.

      Enough said.

      Wow. what does this have to do with Ayla and her missing. Who writes such sick crap. It made my stomach hurt when I read it.

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  2. I feel like I've read this assumption stuff somewhere before but I can't seem to find it... Almost like it disappeared...

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    1. Yes you did, but where it was written before wasn't where I felt at easy in discussing my opinion. Since this forum is open to all opinions, I felt this would be a better place to say it.

      And as stated in my post, everyone makes assumptions (whether they can admit to it or not). - KJ

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    2. As you stated, that may just be your assumption that your opinion wasn't welcome...

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    3. tell me more... it absolutely was my assumption. Perhaps my own self doubts about my thoughts, in the presence of people that seem so sure of theirs. (that's not a negative thing, that's an admiration thing). - KJ

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  3. Must be something in the air. I was just communicating with someone ;) about this case and said the same thing basically.

    Everyone's view point is as unique as their DNA. That's why it's valuable to exchange ideas because someone else may be able to point something out to you - that you have never considered. And the something pointed out to you can make you look at things totally differently.

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    1. This is one of the reason why I read every blog and look at what everyone has to say. I don't know what happened and I don't know everyone involved. Most of my opinion comes from what I hear from others, the few facts that are out there and my own biases. That is one of the reasons I was glad to see this blog turn more towards what happened to Ayla, with everyone having the opportunity to speak rather than the blog wars. We truly are all looking for the same thing, the truth about what happened. WHERE is AYLA? We all want to know. - KJ

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  4. One quote I read in a Stephen King book about assumptions/assuming. (Paraphrasing here)

    "To ASSUME makes an ass out of u and me"

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    1. If that were true, none of us could get along in life. None of us have all the facts. So we are all left to assuming. To believe that quote is true, one has to assume that Stephen King is correct, or knows it all.

      It may well make us look like an ass every so often, but it remains that we all do it. ;) - KJ

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    2. And if we didn't assume once in awhile that would mean that we wouldn't ask questions or try to reason things out.

      Would we be back in the dark ages if no one assumed anything!

      Better to ask and look like an ass than to not ask at all!

      Glenda

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    3. Assuming is the opposite of asking. If you assume, you are not asking a direct question to get a direct answer.

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    4. Good point, tell me more. But even when we ask and get a response, some level of assumption is necessary. Assumptions, like opinions are subject to change. Facts are not. - KJ

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  5. Good post, KJ. I possess enough self-awareness to recognize that I have made many assumptions regarding this case.

    Sure...things can get lost in translation (LE to Trista, Trista to Jeff, Jeff to the blogs, and LE refusing to confirm or deny the point that is being discussed).

    But the error in reporting the December 17 trip to Portland that never happened was reckless and irresponsible. Jeff even implied that Ayla was disposed of on a trip that never was. Jeff messed with Derek Tudela's life in a most reprehensible way. And to have the fictional tale spread through a yahoo news contributor is all the more seemly, IMO.

    Yes...Jeff retracted and apologized, but the damage was done. I don't know Derek...hopefully he's a forgiving sort of guy. Not sure I would be under similar circumstances.

    I think a blog that embraces and encourages ALL voices is a positive, and I can see that happening here. I just don't appreciate theories being passed off as indisputable "facts." That, IMO, is dangerous. It can, and does, hurt innocent people.

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    1. Beyond Confused.... I totally agree. I think there are probably times that people want to believe something so bad that they forget that not everything is facts. I think there is also a rush to share. It is irresponsible to post something as fact that is not. I was glad to see the retraction, because I too believed it and assumed scenarios that might have been, that now I know could not have been.

      This is one tough case and the longer Ayla is missing, the harder it can be to control what is opinion, truth and confirmed facts. I find I haven't said as much myself, because it's hard at this point to remember what I was told by someone, what I believe and what I read somewhere. Must be I'm getting older than I thought. :)

      I definitely like seeing everyone sharing their thoughts here. I would love to see more of the opinions from those who believe Justin is innocent. I do read the other blogs, though I don't comment very often. I really like seeing what others (especially those who don't agree with my thought process) have to say, because it helps me decide if my thoughts are valid or totally messed up. - KJ

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    2. Well...I have always maintained you are a hot-spit, KJ. Fair. A rare quality.

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    3. Thank you Beyond Confused.... I try. Although my husband might say I'm just trying. ;) - KJ

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  6. There is a picture of a child who looks like Ayla Reynolds in a photo copy photo on the bulletin board inside the receptionist office of the DSS office in Brunswick County, NC. She is on a toy car that has big cartoon eyes. Lots of children look similar but my first gut instinct was not to even ask anyone about it there.

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  7. So did the authorities search the landfill? Good question. I agree with what I was reading on the internet that Maine has bad CPS. All counties in the USA have awful CPS, DSS, Human Services, whatever your area calls them. They weren't happy with the mother for standing up to them and getting help. I'm sure someone looked at that beautiful blond hair and blue eyed child and saw dollar signs for an illegal adoption. Maybe 3 or more people in one house wouldn't protect a murderer of a father but would protect one that felt convinced his daughter would be "better off." And how much quieter would they be with a little financial incentive. Everybody knows this case will go into the cold case section real soon. The public probably already says oh, well drugs involved just like the Cummings case. Maybe some authority figures wouldn't want to open a can of worms and look into the fact that CPS might be involved. Look how many kids Florida has lost. They at one time lost about 200 foster kids but still the Federal Government refuses to have oversight into all the state's running of their child welfare divisions. No one ever goes in and truly looks at whether these agencies are doing a good job or not. Poor families are just not measuring up. They never consider that government help also hurts them in some ways. They want to have better lives but they are afraid to take a step ahead because they are always under threat of prosecution or intimidation. No one looks out for the interests of poor people. I've seen CPS drop the ball big time. I have seen them go to court and stand by a mother they knew would one day go off and shoot her children. Well that would be a few less on Medicaid. They arrested Casey Anthony before they found Caylee's body but they aren't arresting the father that gave his child a broken arm and then she has disappeared under his watch. Maybe because they think she is still alive. Did they search the landfill? Good question.

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  8. If you really think about it, out of 50 states with say a hundred welfare depts. there has never been a case of a social worker taking a child and selling the child to a desperate couple...that is known of. We always read about cases of social workers charged with financial fraud but never anything like that. Florida had a guardian to the courts that was a fake nun who kidnapped a child and sent it to South America and the state wouldn't let her be a guardian but as of today isn't she a free woman. OMG nobody ever wants to believe that the people we depend on to keep the most innocent little ones safe would ever do anything like that. Would society make an excuse if they knew like "she was just trying to give her a nice home because her parents were druggies" ? Out of all those social workers charged with fraud there has never been one charged with implementing an illegal adoption. Well that is just the kind of business for a criminal to be in then! The fact that the IRS comes under more scrutiny than the DSS is sickening!!!

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